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China Electronic Commerce Research Center Rating Ali U.S. IPO start

Post date: 2014/4/11 9:28:31 From: Chun Teng Trading Co., Ltd. of Dongguan City
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March 25 , sources said Alibaba Group IPO starts today held a meeting in Hong Kong to the United States . At the meeting, the meeting is responsible for the IPO Alibaba matters six major underwriters ( Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank , Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley ) , as well as lawyers and other professionals associated with the IPO . The main contents of the meeting is to discuss and formulate the main responsibilities of the parties listed programs.

March 16 , Alibaba Group, said in a statement issued through the microblogging " start" the United States listed issues , saying that " initial public offering (IPO) locations identified as the United States ," but did not disclose the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange, Jingdong also did not like the SEC would like to submit the listing document , the industry raised a lot of questions .

Second, the relevant data

( A ) market share

B2B Market: According to the China Electronic Commerce Research Center (100EC.CN) Monitoring data show that in 2013 the share of B2B e-commerce service provider revenue , ranked first in Alibaba , the market share of 44.5% market share compared with 45% in 2012 declined.

B2B market in the next rankings are: Shanghai Steel Union ( my steel mesh ) , Global Sources, HC , Focus Technology ( Made in China ) , the global market , Netsun were ranked two to seven , respectively proportion : 10.6% , 7.1 %, 3.6 %, 2.4 %, 1.7 %, 1.3 %.

B2C market : According to the China Electronic Commerce Research Center monitoring data show that in 2013 China B2C online retail market ( including the platform type and independent sales formula ) , is still ranked first Lynx mall , accounting for 50.1% in 2012 accounted for Lynx 52.1% , down 2% ; Jingdong ranked second , accounting for 22.4% ; located in third place is Suning Tesco reached 4.9% ; subsequent 4-10 ranking order: Tencent electricity supplier ( 3.1% ) , Amazon China ( 2.7% ) , shop No. 1 ( 2.6% ) , the only product ( 2.3% ) , Dangdang ( 1.4% ) , the United States line ( 0.4% ) , Eslite ( 0.2% ) .

(B ) Revenue data:

According to the China Electronic Commerce Research Center (100EC.CN) monitoring data show that Alibaba Group revenue of $ 6.7 billion in 2013 , $ 4.9 billion in gross profit , the main business profit $ 3.1 billion . Alibaba Group's 2013 net profit of $ 2.8 billion , net profit margin of 42% , while net profit in 2012 was only 24%.

Third, the analyst view:

For Alibaba Group announced the launch of the United States listed issues , e-commerce analyst at research centers in China and a number of special researcher be analyzed as follows :

Alibaba Group, listed on the potential risks of the United States points Comments :

In this regard, China Electronic Commerce Research Center director , researcher Cao Lei said:

- Ali Baba A -share market is currently almost no possibility of ownership structure

Alibaba has H shares listed on made preparations . Now obviously too costly to replace the listed locations . More importantly , Alibaba better understanding of the market and investors. As for the A -share market , Alibaba current shareholding structure through regulatory audits impossible , at present, Chinese investors due to various restrictions and massive investment in the U.S. stock market is not even Alibaba promised to return the country to participate in the capital markets , and ultimately the issue is also depending on the strength of the domestic capital market reforms and a timetable .

The United States is too strict supervision , Ali to comply with market rules , in any case are to sacrifice efficiency. On the one hand , by the rules of the game , then went ahead before Ma things , mostly non-compliance ; American Bar lucky , the fund manager does not make Ali feel better ; required punching , fighting with people and no lethality. Thus, even allowing for the founder of one-man , it is just a decoration .

In this regard, a senior analyst at China Electronic Commerce Research Center Zhangzhou Ping said:

First, as the United States market , or will face the risk of class action . As the most developed and mature capital markets, the U.S. market, companies have to accept the more stringent legal environment, and even can be said that the listed company 's lawsuit against the United States has become a mature industry chain , tied behind short bodies , law firms , multi-stakeholder shareholders. However, the risk of class action fact, for many companies, are present. Millions of Taobao sellers , many fakes can easily be tugging fight .

Second, industry competition , time to market without further ado . First, in recent years , Ali 's main business B2B, B2C e-commerce market share occupied by China declined . With Tencent and Jingdong marriage , Tencent micro-channel may become helpful Jingdong La Eli dismount killer. In addition, a strong competitor in Alibaba B2C field also includes Suning, Shop No. 1 , Dangdang, the only product , Tencent electricity supplier , Amazon China , the United States line , Eslite and so on. Second, under the agreement , Alibaba and Yahoo reached in 2012 , Alibaba IPO entitled to repurchase the occasion of one of Yahoo's 24% of the shares held by two points, but the premise is that Alibaba repurchase in December 2015 requires prior to the completion of the listing . That left Alibaba 's time is running out .

In this regard, the Internet financial analyst Lin Feng China Electronic Commerce Research Center said:

- Ali the United States market , the object will become the focus of governance Taobao

If Alibaba is really available in the U.S. is successful, counterfeit products , the sale of non- legitimate channels authorized regular products, as well as theft of pictures Taobao small sellers will become the object of Taobao focus on governance , and most Taobao small sellers lack the necessary authorization awareness .

After listing, the high cost consideration Ali to face , it might be overwhelmed . Ali of the United States market , aims to keep more options , so it is very passive , then there is no way to measure risk , and now can only go up from circumvent the law , I am afraid it is difficult to take into account the market level .

In this regard, China Electronic Commerce Research Center special researcher YU Deguang said:

- Ali select U.S. public is upset pressure on HKEx

Alibaba choice issue in the United States , it should be said that upset. Even now, Ali is still the best place of listing in Hong Kong . Ali intends to take the initiative to report the news in the U.S. was estimated to be a manifestation of the pressure on the HKEx . U.S. stocks while supporting Ali's partner system, but Ali will also face many problems, such as : (1) the United States , while allowing A / B shares , but there are more stringent management of regulatory conditions , the need for more open and transparent ; 2 Ali also need to address issues such as selling fake Taobao , Alipay VIE storm such as this series of questions .

But in any case , Ali must be listed as soon as possible , according to the agreement between Yahoo and Ali , Ali must valuation of more than $ 38.5 billion in December 2015 listed before , otherwise Yahoo will have the right not to sell shares in the hands of Ali ; addition, Ali now be said to be experiencing many bottlenecks , such as poor mobile Internet , select the pinnacle in the development of the market, should be able to get the best return on valuation .

In this regard, special researcher at the China Electronic Commerce Research Center , Liaoning Asia Lawyer Dong Yizhi said:

Ali choose the U.S. market or will face a great risk of litigation . Alibaba's Taobao selling substandard when genuine , really fake goods sold , which is Taobao C2C model is facing one of the biggest problems. Ali may choose to do this to face the United States listed considerable litigation risk . According to the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 , " 301" , the U.S. Trade Representative's office needs to prepare a "Special 301 Report " every year. According to this year on February 12 , the U.S. Trade Representative's office issued the 2013 global "notorious markets " report , China was listed as the biggest fake physical market .

According to the Trade Act of 1974 , the annual report must be those countries that can not provide adequate protection of intellectual property included one called " urgent need to deal with foreign List ", once included in this list , the United States will impose sanctions on them . Christian kingdom in good faith , the U.S. capital markets would be difficult to be Ali spared . Especially after 2011 , Alipay incident, the U.S. investor 's attitude toward Ali still have reservations .

This year's "3 o 15" party, " laser pointer " and " cod liver oil " is named . After the party, these two moments in Taobao single product "disappear ." And if Ali in the cultural history of the U.S. class action listed on Taobao I am afraid it will not be so lucky , to replace specialized to do a high-profile reminder of the evening . Will be silently evidence, a high-profile prosecution. In the U.S., shareholders can sue executives of listed companies stand. U.S. listing Taobao , is not will be " fish " , " chopping board " under ?

Paypal security issues into its negative impact valuations. March 14th Chinese People's Bank Payment and Settlement Division issued a " letter of advice ", requiring the Secretary of Hangzhou settlement " an immediate moratorium on the line bar codes ( two-dimensional code ) payment , virtual credit card related business ." Overall reasons for the "pause" , and is to protect the interests of customers , to prevent payment risks . Subsequently , CCTV an evening news : the phone is lost, Alipay Alipay is also safe yet to prove safety security issues again ? .

Payment nature treasure barcode payment is to make use of bar code technology to convert the line credit card payment online transactions , the low- risk transactions into high-risk transactions . Not established customer identification , record keeping and transaction reporting mechanisms transaction analysis can easily be exploited criminals , money-laundering and other illegal activities to create conditions . From the daily monitoring , the payment risk a growing problem , once the risk , but also can not be traced . As the industry leader Ali O2O boss , after the United States market , Paypal security issues will undoubtedly become its negative impact valuations. U.S. safety regulators would have to pay what the regulators , and probably Ali had scratching problems.

Ali integrity issues become forever erase " cinnabar mole ." After China was the myth of Ma, in 2011 , Alipay event , the destruction of the "contract principles " approach , became the object of media crusade and Wall Street investors groups condemned . Even the media bluntly, " Ali Group has been discredited in the United States ." The famous Wall Street fund manager James Chanos o even threatened , " the latest investment advice is to short Chinese stocks listed in New York ." Just shake Alipay incident caused no more than six months after a smooth , Ali B2B company to issue the HKEx price delisting. Many small shareholders suffer. The move has triggered a conflict with Hong Kong capital community. After that, Ali signed an agreement with Yahoo : Ali will be $ 7.6 billion to repurchase 20% of the hands of Ali Yahoo shares . Also, the remaining shares of Alibaba Group has the right to repurchase the occasion of the IPO held by Yahoo 50 %.

This year the United States Ali IPO, according to the agreement , the completion of a qualified IPO, repurchase agreement to take effect. Ali , the completion of the agreement requires "qualified IPO", is not difficult. But after Alipay events and HKEx after delisting , Ali even listed in the U.S. , worries investors, shareholders, etc. and stop there. To establish trust in a person needs to do a lot of effort. And destroy a person's confidence , and sometimes only one action. Ali integrity problem , I am afraid has become forever erase cinnabar mole . If the listing is successful, Yahoo can tie , if they would face legal proceedings problems. After the IPO, if the move occurs against the interests of minority shareholders , I am afraid it will suit Ali ridden , get away as easily as before difficult .

Listed relationship networks into a "stumbling block ." Ali, known as one of the BAT giant, thanks in large part because of its complex, large systems Ali affiliates. According to Ali, accounting information, internal Ali subsidiary system is divided into nine major systems : the Group's domestic companies , the Group's overseas companies , B2B domestic companies , B2B companies overseas , Ali cloud , Ali finance , Taobao, Alipay , Yahoo, each system are affiliated subsidiaries at home and abroad , ranging from 8-50 home or affiliates. Among them, the next Taobao system , the number reached 18 or so subsidiaries, Zhejiang Lynx Technology Co. , Ltd. Zhejiang Lynx network where they like.

And the existence of related party transactions between the various risks associated with the company . Or take that matter here and Alipay . You and I can not fully distinguish between Ali and Paypal . Ali seller to commission , Ali Alipay to pay fees . The existence of two close data and business dealings. Control who can follow Ali's business needs to control the input , output , if necessary, can be carried out maneuvers transfer .

In various subsidiaries , almost important business lines, founder Jack Ma Ali layout are a lot of affiliates. Ma can not at any time inform the shareholders of the company 's operations or results to be adjusted. Alipay is the year of the event in this context occurs . Business, etc. There Lynx , Taobao and Ali are highly correlated , should belong to continuing connected transactions .

U.S. presence based on disclosure of market mechanism , its strict risk disclosure system is obvious. Under these provisions, any factors that are detrimental to the interests of shareholders must be disclosed , including the risks associated with the transaction . Risk Disclosure of related party transactions in detail as to why you need to give such transaction price. Cut, and chaotic Ali , then choose the United States market , you may need to face more stringent than other listed companies on compliance related party transactions , disclosure requirements , listing to the way Ali , plus a stumbling block .

Ali too many loopholes in their own business , whether it is " forced " the listing , or for whatever reason, between Ali hastily put themselves in a transparent and open environment, the degree of acceptance of the trial , a stumbling block to be processed and will never face more than " partner system "How to break the problem simple. Create a U.S. and global technology company 's largest IPO case , Ali remains to be done .

About Alibaba Group " partner " system points Comments:

In this regard, special researcher at the China Electronic Commerce Research Center , Zhejiang Zeda Law Firm Fu Yongyong counsel that :

- Ali learned anyway refraction control of the company firmly in the hands of the founders , otherwise the consequences could be disastrous !

Ali Baba chose to the U.S. market, mainly because of the provisions partner Alibaba system does not match with the HKEx . In order to protect the interests of small investors in Hong Kong , HKEx is impossible to make concessions on Alibaba . Alibaba reason to design a system partner , in the final analysis , or because Ma Alibaba stake in the company is too low, from the ownership structure is concerned, Ma and Alibaba management team of the company is difficult to control , so another way .

It also warned of other entrepreneurs, control of the company is the lifeblood of the company , in the process of equity financing , anyway the control of the company firmly in the hands of the founders , otherwise the consequences could be disastrous. A few years ago , Gome 's board of directors competing for control of the war is also the company 's typical case , a great war against the United States harm.

In this regard, special researcher at the China Electronic Commerce Research Center , Alibaba Business School associate professor, Dr. Jo Han said:

- Ali U.S. IPO roots in the partner system is forced by the situation upset.

Looking at the world , the best place to Ali is listed in Hong Kong . In Hong Kong, Ali obtain the most ideal valuation , based on a common cultural background and the future with investors , regulators communication more convenient. However, HKEx has still not agreed to partner Ali's system spared , partner Ma made precisely the moment for Ali announced U.S. IPO Review , Ali listed the most basic precondition set .

The face of the rise of micro- letters , Tencent investment Jingdong , Jingdong IPO start paying business disruption , Ali can not wait any longer , when Ali announced U.S. IPO is no choice forced by the situation , but also , after weighing the current best choice .

In this regard, special researcher at the China Electronic Commerce Research Center , director of the research center network of integrated marketing PCEM China Electronic Commerce Association Liu Dongming said:

- Partner Alibaba system is the main reason for the United States market had to leave their homes

Alibaba listing a few happy tears ? HKEx system limitations make for equity partner Alibaba system had to leave their homes to the United States market, which in China is sorrow and pride , sorrow is the " fertilizer exodus " A Shares War , domestic investors had to " feel powerless and frustrated ," foreign capital into China Internet companies to gold ; proud that foreigners can use the money to do the Chinese people 's cause . Meanwhile, in preparation for the listing has encountered unprecedented pressure Jingdong Alexander , Tencent will also be affected, Tencent, Alibaba intensified competition .

In this regard, China Electronic Commerce Research Center freelance researcher, Associate Professor Liujun Bin said:

- USA "AB shares " system is to solve the dilemma of a listed Ali "fast medicine"

Ali went to the U.S. market because Hong Kong does not support the so-called " partner system " that Ma wants to enjoy the " same share different weights ," do not support the majority of countries and regions , including China 's "Company Law ." Ali U.S. IPO -related procedures have not yet entered the implementation phase , AB shares system undoubtedly holds many lessons for the only time can answer Ali predicament a "fast medicine ." But Ali did not know whether some of the acts previously been Forget the United States.
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